All Economic Updates below are in pdf format.
We continue to expect global GDP growth of about 4% to 4.5% for both 2010 and 2011. The global growth rate may be close to the upper part of that range in 2010 due to the strong growth which has already taken place during the first few months of 2010, while the global growth rate in 2011 may be close to the lower part of the range, given recent indications of a slower pace of expansion in many countries. We expect sustained expansion worldwide. More
A lot has been going on. So what are the crucial issues now? We believe that the six key issues are (1) contagion risk in Europe, (2) contagion risk beyond Europe, (3) the implications of the peak in Chinese property prices, (4) the outlook for global economic growth, (5) the outlook for U.S. economic growth and (6) the outlook for inflation and interest rates. More
We expect a sustained global expansion at a real GDP growth rate of 4% to 4.5% for both 2010 and 2011, with financially strong countries leading and “debt hangover” countries growing more tentatively. We continue to expect the U.S. economy to grow at about a 3% to 4% pace in 2010 and 2011. More
We continue to expect a sustained global economic expansion, with a global real GDP growth rate of about 4% in both 2010 and 2011. We continue to expect the lagged impact of simultaneous macroeconomic stimulus around the world to generate a sustained global expansion. More
Our outlook continues to be for a sustained global and U.S. economic expansion at an above-trend pace. This is the result of the success of simultaneous macroeconomic stimulation adopted by nearly every country in the world over the last year. The lesson of the last year is that “policy is powerful.” More
We believe that the U.S. and global recessions are over and that sustained economic recoveries have begun, both in the U.S. and worldwide. The “global emergency rescue” of the financial system and the economy was
a major success, at least from a short-term cyclical perspective and potentially from a long-term perspective as well. More
In our opinion, the U.S. recession is over, an outcome consistent with our forecast of a recession trough near mid-2009. We also believe that the global recession has ended, as the economic recovery, which began in Asia, spreads to most major countries. Real GDP should rise in most major countries during the third quarter of 2009. More
We expect (1) a gradual calming of widespread concerns about an economic depression since we believe that policymakers have a correct diagnosis of the financial and economic risks and are taking proactive monetary and fiscal policy actions to reduce them in a basic policy stance of “whatever it takes,” (2) the deepest U.S.recession, G-7 recession and global recession of the Postwar period, . . . More
Our outlook is unchanged. We expect that (1) depression will be avoided, (2) the financial crisis will continue to ease, (3) America’s longest and deepest Postwar recession will end near mid-2009, (4) the rate of growth in the subsequent expansion will be subpar, reflecting a mix of a strong inventory cycle and weak growth in final demand and (5) there will be a persistently high unemployment rate over the next several years. More
We agree with the view that this is the greatest global financial crisis since the Great Depression. The global economy was in freefall in the fourth quarter of 2008 and this should continue in the early months of 2009. This has created fears of a global depression. However, we expect a severe global recession rather than a depression. More