All Economic Updates below are in pdf format.
We believe that the most likely outlook for the world economy is a global growth recession, rather than either a full-scale global recession or a strong economic expansion. This outlook assumes a gradual shift towards appropriate cyclical economic policies in key countries. For Europe overall, we expect European economic activity to be flat to declining somewhat over the next several quarters, with an economic stall in key core countries and continuing recessions in several peripheral countries. That assumes a semi-orderly process of resolving insolvency and contagion risks in Europe. More
The global economy is rebalancing down, as the stresses on the developed economies have increased. Rather than a full-scale global recession, we believe that the odds favor a global growth recession. We
expect global expansion at a reduced pace to be supported by continuing demand growth in emerging market countries, many of which have much greater macroeconomic policy flexibility than the developed countries. In addition, weaker energy prices are likely to help support real incomes. More
With oil prices dropping from their recent peaks, we believe that sustained global expansion at a moderate pace is somewhat more likely than full-scale recession. However, the risk of a full-scale recession, especially in the U.S. and Europe, has risen substantially due to policy choices which have generated substantial financial stresses. The key to the economic outlook will be the duration and intensity of these stresses. More
We continue to expect a sustained global economic expansion along with two subcycle patterns: a subcycle slowdown in economic activity and a subcycle peak in reported inflation (including food and energy). We expect the subcycle peak in reported inflation to occur in the context of a gradual upward drift in core inflation in many countries. Economic growth should tend to be slow in countries suffering from a debt hangover and stronger in those countries without a debt hangover. More
We believe that the world economy is in the midcycle phase of a sustainable global economic expansion. We expect cyclical expansion to be sustainable even as many economies experience a short subcycle slowdown in the industrial sector following the recent phase of an unsustainably rapid surge in industrial production at a time of higher energy prices and some policy tightening. More
There are multiple crosscurrents in the global and U.S. economies. We focus here on (1) the state of the global economy prior to both the Middle East turmoil and the tragic events in Japan, (2) the implications of the Middle East turmoil and (3) the implications of the news from Japan. More
We expect a strong sustained global economic expansion in 2011 and 2012. We continue to expect global real GDP growth to average about 4% to 4.5% in 2011, with the fastest growth in those countries in the strongest financial position (largely in the developing world) and the slowest growth likely in those countries with a debt hangover (largely in the developed world). The fundamental trend of rising global productivity and incomes due to wider dispersion of modern technology should persist. More
We continue to expect a broad sustained global economic expansion over the next several years with the fastest growth in those countries in the strongest financial position (largely in the developing world) and the slowest growth likely in those countries with a debt hangover (largely in the developed world). We expect global real GDP growth to average about 4% to 4.5% in 2011. More
We continue to expect a broad sustained global economic expansion over the next several years with the fastest growth in those countries in the strongest financial position (largely in the developing world) and the slowest growth likely in those countries with a debt hangover (largely in the developed world). More
We continue to expect a broad sustained global economic expansion over the next several years with the fastest growth in those countries in the strongest financial position (largely in the developing world) and the slowest growth likely in those countries with a debt hangover (largely in the developed world). More
We continue to believe that both the global economy and the U.S. economy are in sustained economic expansions. We do not expect a double-dip recession. More
We continue to expect global GDP growth of about 4% to 4.5% for both 2010 and 2011. The global growth rate may be close to the upper part of that range in 2010 due to the strong growth which has already taken place during the first few months of 2010, while the global growth rate in 2011 may be close to the lower part of the range, given recent indications of a slower pace of expansion in many countries. We expect sustained expansion worldwide. More
A lot has been going on. So what are the crucial issues now? We believe that the six key issues are (1) contagion risk in Europe, (2) contagion risk beyond Europe, (3) the implications of the peak in Chinese property prices, (4) the outlook for global economic growth, (5) the outlook for U.S. economic growth and (6) the outlook for inflation and interest rates. More
We expect a sustained global expansion at a real GDP growth rate of 4% to 4.5% for both 2010 and 2011, with financially strong countries leading and “debt hangover” countries growing more tentatively. We continue to expect the U.S. economy to grow at about a 3% to 4% pace in 2010 and 2011. More
We continue to expect a sustained global economic expansion, with a global real GDP growth rate of about 4% in both 2010 and 2011. We continue to expect the lagged impact of simultaneous macroeconomic stimulus around the world to generate a sustained global expansion. More
Our outlook continues to be for a sustained global and U.S. economic expansion at an above-trend pace. This is the result of the success of simultaneous macroeconomic stimulation adopted by nearly every country in the world over the last year. The lesson of the last year is that “policy is powerful.” More
We believe that the U.S. and global recessions are over and that sustained economic recoveries have begun, both in the U.S. and worldwide. The “global emergency rescue” of the financial system and the economy was
a major success, at least from a short-term cyclical perspective and potentially from a long-term perspective as well. More
In our opinion, the U.S. recession is over, an outcome consistent with our forecast of a recession trough near mid-2009. We also believe that the global recession has ended, as the economic recovery, which began in Asia, spreads to most major countries. Real GDP should rise in most major countries during the third quarter of 2009. More
We expect (1) a gradual calming of widespread concerns about an economic depression since we believe that policymakers have a correct diagnosis of the financial and economic risks and are taking proactive monetary and fiscal policy actions to reduce them in a basic policy stance of “whatever it takes,” (2) the deepest U.S. recession, G-7 recession and global recession of the Postwar period, . . . More
Our outlook is unchanged. We expect that (1) depression will be avoided, (2) the financial crisis will continue to ease, (3) America’s longest and deepest Postwar recession will end near mid-2009, (4) the rate of growth in the subsequent expansion will be subpar, reflecting a mix of a strong inventory cycle and weak growth in final demand and (5) there will be a persistently high unemployment rate over the next several years. More
We agree with the view that this is the greatest global financial crisis since the Great Depression. The global economy was in freefall in the fourth quarter of 2008 and this should continue in the early months of 2009. This has created fears of a global depression. However, we expect a severe global recession rather than a depression. More