Publications

The latest views from our economists and investment professionals.
pdf All Publications are in pdf format.

Insight on the U.S. Economy

February 2012

This Perspective discusses Mellon Capital's views and examines economic data evaluating the resilience of the U.S. economy.

Rethinking Bond Index Weightings and Concentration Risk

January 2012

The recent turmoil in the Eurozone has illustrated the pitfalls of issuance weighted benchmarks in sovereign debt portfolios. In this paper, Ralph Goldsticker and Lowell Bennett argue that investors should design bond portfolios that minimize concentration and the risk of downgrades and defaults.

Outlook and Insights 4Q11

January 2012

Current perspectives on several key asset classes.

Keeping Real Assets Real

December 2011

In this paper, we discuss which assets belong in a real asset portfolio and why some assets commonly labelled "real" may not have all the desired properties. We also discuss the benefits of active portfolio management for real assets.

Interim Portfolio Management

October 2011

In the current environment of heightened compliance and regulatory scrutiny, the length of time that it takes to go from decision to investment seems only to be increasing. In this paper, we describe an application of beta management with growing appeal to institutional investors for its cost efficiency and flexibility: interim portfolio management.

Institutional Risk-Taking: A Management Perspective

September 2011

This paper discusses the approaches to risk management in a dynamic investment environment, provides an economic framework to manage asset allocation strategy, and suggests an approach for dealing with turbulent markets.

Here We Go Again: Plunging Funded Ratios

September 2011

Impact from Recent Market Turmoil: A Macroeconomic Outlook

August 2011

This paper discusses the deteriorating economic conditions in Europe against the backdrop of the recent U.S. debt downgrade.

Understanding and Responding to the Debt Ceiling Debate

July 2011

This Perspective outlines our views on the major issues of the current debt crises, their likelihood of occurring, and the potential impact should they occur.

Implementing High Return, Liability-Hedging Portfolios

June 2011

Managing the asset/liability risk of the pension plan has become the primary measure of success. Sponsors are searching for solutions that close funding gaps, hedge liabilities, and do so within a reasonable administrative perspective.

Managing FX Counterparty Risk

June 2011

This research paper outlines how counterparty risk impacted the FX market during the Lehman crisis. Lynn presents the various risk mitigation tools that are currently available and discusses how the regulations resulting from the Dodd-Frank legislation might impact the market structure.

Designing Better LDI Portfolios: Avoiding Pitfalls of Traditional Approaches

January 2011

We look at the framework for making the active versus passive decision in fixed income, and discuss the needs of Corporate Pension Plans to invest in long high quality corporate bonds as an example.

Fundamental Indexes: A New Dimension in Equity Investing

November 2010

In this paper, we analyze various fundamental index offerings and discuss how investors can use them to capture excess returns within the framework of passive index management.

Solutions to Six Investment Risks and the Role of a Central Exposure Manager

November 2010

Now more than ever, there is a renewed focus on managing risk in innovative ways. A centralized “exposure” or “beta manager,” specializing in risk management and the efficient implementation of a derivatives program, offers synthetic solutions to help plan sponsors address six common, investment challenges.

Hedge Fund Portfolios - Embedded Timing Alpha

October 2010

Beyond correlation effects, investors should understand all of the sources of performance that come with a portfolio of hedge funds and consider being active in reducing—or better managing— exposures to alpha, timing alpha and traditional beta.

Combining the Tangent Portfolio Concept with LDI

October 2010

Examines how pension plan sponsors can combine the tangent portfolio concept with LDI to maximize the Sharpe Ratio of the surplus volatility.

Tangent Theory Enters the Mainstream

October 2010

As investors reconsider equity centric asset allocation approaches, one concept gaining broader acceptance is the “risk parity” approach. However, risk parity is not a new concept; it is actually a special case of CAPM tangent theory.

Flaw in Asset Allocation Policy

October 2010

A policy asset allocation’s inability to accept new information can lead to unrealized return expectations, inefficient portfolios, unexpected volatility, and tail risks.

Mitigating Downside Risk from Market Shocks

May 2010

Reflecting on the volatility and illiquidity that battered portfolios during the financial crisis, our Chief Investment Officer, Michael Ho discusses potential ways to protect portfolios against downside risk.

Cracking the Commodities Code: A Fundamental Approach to Harvesting Alpha Opportunities

February 2010

Our systematic, fundamental approach to commodities investing, we believe, can enhance the attractiveness of the asset class while mitigating its drawbacks.

Evaluating the Glidepath Design of Target Date Maturity Funds

August 2009

‘Glidepaths’ help determine portfolio asset allocation in target date maturity funds. Ralph Goldsticker explores the role glidepaths play in the expected performance of those funds.

Corporate Bonds: Are they the new stocks?

June 2009

Are the high yields in the credit markets a better choice than the potential gains in a beaten-up stock market? This special report considers the question.

The Role of Commodities in a Modern, Diversified Portfolio

November 2008

Our research team outlines the potential diversification benefits commodities can provide in financial portfolios.

Can Washington—and a Reverse Auction—Save the Markets and Still Protect the Taxpayers?

September 2008

This pressing issue is addressed by Ronald P. O’Hanley, former Vice Chairman, BNY Mellon, and Charles J. Jacklin, Ph.D., President and CEO, Mellon Capital Management.

Economic Update

December 2011

by Richard B. Hoey
Chief Economist,
BNY Mellon

We believe that the most likely outlook for the world economy in 2012 is a global growth recession with global real GDP growth in 2012 of about 3%,down from about 3.7% in 2011 and 5.0% in 2010. The overall economic outlook reflects disparate trends in different regions: a full-scale recession in Europe, stagnation or moderate recession in the nearby U.K., near-trend growth in the U.S., continued expansion in Japan and moderate slowdowns in China and most other emerging market countries.

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